Tropical Cyclones Pose Growing Risk to Offshore Wind Energy
The primary challenge in this research is assessing the impact of future tropical storms on U.S. offshore wind farms, which are vital for renewable energy but susceptible to storm damage. Our key finding indicates that climate change will likely lead to more frequent and intense storms in U.S. coastal regions, heightening the risk to wind turbines. Model predictions suggest that storms previously occurring every 20 years may occur approximately every 12.7 years in the future. This increased exposure to severe storms suggests a higher likelihood of turbine damage, potentially necessitating raising design standards for the offshore wind energy sector.
Our research investigates the risk posed by tropical cyclones (TCs) to offshore wind energy in the U.S. under future climate, a critical issue as the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts are susceptible to TC impacts. We are pioneering the use of a model that integrates physics, machine learning, and statistics to project future TC behavior. Our findings indicate that TCs will become more frequent and intense in U.S. coastal regions, heightening the risk of turbine damage. This research aids in enhancing the resiliency of offshore wind energy by providing information for spatial planning and turbine design standards.
Our research investigates the increasing threat of TCs to U.S. offshore wind energy infrastructure along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts under future climate scenarios. Using the Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT), we simulate future TC scenarios and assess their impact on offshore wind turbines. Our findings indicate that the frequency and intensity of TCs in U.S. coastal regions are projected to rise, with historical 20-year storms occurring approximately every 12.7 years in the future, intensifying by about 9.3 m/s. This escalation in TC activity significantly amplifies the risk of turbine damage, with probabilities of structural yielding and buckling induced by a 20-year storm increasing by 37% and 13%, respectively.
These results underscore the critical need for TC-resilient turbine designs and strategic siting of wind farms to mitigate future risks. Our study provides a comprehensive framework for assessing offshore wind turbine vulnerability under evolving TC conditions, offering valuable insights for the sustainable development of renewable energy resources. By integrating climate model projections with structural fragility analyses, we aim to support informed decision-making in offshore wind energy planning, ensuring resilience against the anticipated amplified TC threats in future climate.