Global-Scale Human Impact on Delta Morphology has Led to Net Land Area Gain
River deltas rank among the most economically and ecologically valuable environments on Earth. People living on deltas are increasingly vulnerable to sea-level rise and coastal hazards such as major storms, extremely high tides, and tsunamis. Many deltas experience a decline in sediment supply due to upstream damming, making them even more vulnerable. However, this study found that long-term, large-scale, upstream deforestation has resulted in soil erosion that increased the amount of sediment transported to many deltas.
A global survey of 10,848 deltas to determine how their morphology changed between 1985 and 2015 as a result of river damming and deforestation. Despite sea-level rise, deltas have experienced a net gain of approximately 54 km2 per year. Humans were found to have made a significant contribution to these changes, with 25% of delta growth attributable to changes in sediment flux as a result of deforestation. However, 970 deltas had their sediment supply reduced by over 50% as a result of damming. The observed that delta change was most pronounced in south, southeast, and east Asia, where 57% of all the new land has been gained. However, North America saw a net decrease in deltaic area owing to the decline of the Mississippi Delta, which in part is due to damming.
River deltas rank among the most economically and ecologically valuable environments on Earth. Even in the absence of sea-level rise, deltas are increasingly vulnerable to coastal hazards as declining sediment supply and climate change alter their sediment budget, affecting delta morphology and possibly leading to erosion. However, the relationship between deltaic sediment budgets, oceanographic forces of waves and tides, and delta morphology have remained poorly quantified. Here we show how the morphology of about 11,000 coastal deltas worldwide, ranging from small bayhead deltas to mega-deltas, has been affected by river damming and deforestation. We introduce a model that shows that present-day delta morphology varies across a continuum between wave (about 80 percent), tide (around 10 percent), and river (about 10 percent) dominance, but that most large deltas are tide- and river-dominated. Over the past 30 years, despite sea-level rise, deltas globally have experienced a net land gain of 54 ± 12 square kilometers per year (2 standard deviations), with the largest 1 percent of deltas being responsible for 30 percent of all net land area gains. Humans are a considerable driver of these net land gains—25 percent of delta growth can be attributed to deforestation-induced increases in fluvial sediment supply. Yet for nearly 1,000 deltas, river damming has resulted in a severe (more than 50 percent) reduction in anthropogenic sediment flux, forcing a collective loss of 12 ± 3.5 square kilometers per year (2 standard deviations) of deltaic land. Not all deltas lose land in response to river damming: deltas transitioning towards tide dominance are currently gaining land, probably through channel infilling. With expected accelerated sea-level rise, however, recent land gains are unlikely to be sustained throughout the twenty-first century. Understanding the redistribution of sediments by waves and tides will be critical for successfully predicting human-driven change to deltas, both locally and globally.