Rapid 21st Century Sea Ice Depletion in E3SM
Version 3 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) was released in 2024 and includes a state-of-the-art fully coupled sea ice model. The model solves sea ice mechanics on an unstructured 20-30km mesh shared with the ocean model with vastly improved coastal sea ice dynamics compared to previous E3SM versions. Icepack from the CICE-Consortium is used to simulate sea ice column physics and coupling with the atmosphere and ocean. Therein, SNICAR-AD radiative transfer is affected by the morphological aging of snow atop a sea ice thickness and floe size distribution with mushy-layer thermodynamics and melt ponds. We quantify skill and bias of five E3SM ensemble members from 1850 to 2025 using historical and SSP2-4.5 forcing against orbital measurements of sea ice freeboard, coverage, and motion. The late 20th century model exhibits global and hemispheric extent, concentration and drift commensurate with observations at the March equinox but is negatively biased globally at the September equinox. On average, 8% (1%) of sea ice volume is lost per decade at the March equinox peak as compared to 25% (8%) at the September equinox in the northern (southern) hemispheres from 1980 to 2000. The March-September Equinox Asymmetry amplifies in the 21st century even though E3SM’s global surface temperature closely tracks the HadCRUT5 analysis in all ensemble members. 5% (2%) of sea ice volume is lost around March equinox peak in contrast to a 28% (22%) of the September loss per decade from 2000 to 2020. Steady decline in simulated Antarctic sea ice in the 21st century displays little ensemble variability in contrast to observations of interannual extent variability since 2010. Most global sea ice loss occurs in the Arctic, outpacing ICESat and ICESat-2 for which the contribution of snow to freeboard is disentangled using a satellite emulator. We attribute our modeled Equinox Asymmetry to coupling physics targeted for improvement in E3SM Version 4 to address the overarching point that sea ice bias is tied to atmospheric concentrations of CO2 in our model.