Modulation of the Precipitation over the Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent region by the warming of the Congo Basin
The sensitivities of predictability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation to other modes of climate variability of tropospheric, oceanic, and stratospheric origin have been subjects of active research. In this work the effects of global land surface temperature patterns on the variability and predictability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are examined. A large ensemble of Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 3 (E3SMv3) simulations is performed in which the same MJO event is initialized under different land surface conditions that represent their sub-seasonal to inter-annual variability. It is shown that the propagation of the MJO across the Maritime Continent to Western Pacific and on to the Atlantic Ocean and Africa is strongly modulated by the land surface temperature patterns featuring a contrast between Eurasia and North America. MJO events are most likely to circum-navigate when western North America is comparatively warm. The large ensemble of simulations is also used to estimate the impacts of these temperature contrasts on MJO predictability. The warm North America-cool Eurasia pattern is estimated to increase the predictability of the MJO by about 8 days in comparison to the opposite pattern. Further analysis focusing on the observational evidence for this effect and the mechanisms will also be discussed.