Modernizing Probable Maximum Precipitation: Definition, Probabilities, Storm Rainfall, and Models
For more than 75 years, high-hazard structures in the United States, including dams and nuclear power plants, have been engineered to withstand floods resulting from the most unlikely but possible precipitation, termed Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP). PMP procedures were developed in the early 20th century and have not fundamentally changed in 50 years. A new National Academies report (June 2024) recommends a new definition of PMP and presents a vision for a methodology relevant for design, operation, and regulation of critical infrastructure. To achieve modernized PMP estimation, a phased approach is recommended with near-term enhancements to PMP estimates, a Model Evaluation Project, and a long-term approach using model-based estimation that achieves the new PMP definition. The committee recommends revising the definition of PMP to become: “the depth of precipitation for a particular duration, location, and areal extent, such as a drainage basin, with an extremely low annual probability of being exceeded, for a specified climate period.” We present select recommendations from the report on specification of an annual exceedance probability, historical storm rainfall data and radar data catalogs, and the need for model-based reconstructions of storms. Potential opportunities to participate and contribute to the effort are noted.