The Influence of Climate Change on the Severe Flooding from Remnants of Hurricane Ida 2021
Global warming increases extreme precipitation and flooding in tropical cyclones and other extreme storms. Our study evaluates the climate change contribution to the devastating flooding in the Northeast United States caused by the remnants of Hurricane Ida in 2021. A storyline event attribution analysis is conducted based on counterfactual Ida rainfall estimates in a pre-industrial climate baseline. Both counterfactual and actual rainfall were translated into flood inundation through two-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations using the Rapid Infrastructure Flood Tool (RIFT). The climate change contribution to flood characteristics and associated impacts on society were then examined. The results suggested that the effect of climate change on the flood was highly spatially heterogeneous. Results were aggregated to the county level for a regional overview to facilitate more detailed analysis of selected heavily impacted areas. This study is part of the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Integrated Coastal Modeling Project (ICoM) which integrates modeling tools to characterize extreme events and long-term changes in human and natural systems.