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A High-Resolution Regional Climate Model Framework for Projecting Future Change in Historically Impactful Extreme Weather Events

Presentation Date
Friday, December 16, 2022 at 11:46am - Friday, December 16, 2022 at 11:57am
Location
McCormick Place - S502ab (South, Level 4)
Abstract

Extreme weather events, such as heavy precipitation, severe storms, and tropical cyclones, can pose a major challenge for local, state, and federal government agencies. As the climate continues to warm, reliable future projections of extreme weather events are needed to provide the best possible information to decision makers. We developed and applied a high-resolution (convection-permitting) regional climate model framework for projecting future changes in historically impactful extreme weather events, motivated by the needs of stakeholders from the City and County of San Francisco, California and from the Department of Defense. In the first part of this presentation, we investigated how five historically impactful extreme precipitation events over the San Francisco Bay Area could change if similar events were to occur in future climates. We found that future changes in storm-total precipitation depend strongly on storm type, i.e., an atmospheric river alone or accompanied by an extratropical cyclone. Next, we investigated how three tornadic storms could change if similar events were to occur in future climates. We found that future changes in the potential for tornadic storms depend on the seasonal and diurnal timing of the events. Finally, this presentation will close with a discussion on experimental design considerations for this powerful and flexible modeling framework, which can be applied to many types of extreme weather events.

Funding Program Area(s)