Globalization has brought increased access to agricultural trade around the world, which continues to rapidly expand through market integration. This allows regions to meet agricultural demands through a combination of domestic production and trade. These traded goods redistribute water, virtually, around the world. Virtual water trade is an increasingly active area of research, but gaps remain in our understanding of how alternative international trade regimes impact local water resources. Here, for the first time, we explore the impacts of such trade regimes in a fully integrated and water-constrained human-Earth system model on virtual water trade volumes and regional water utilization under reference and future low-carbon transitions. We model a combination of three degrees of global agricultural trade integration and two climate futures in GCAM. An increased trade scenario brings about an average water savings potential of 5,951 km³ globally between 2020-2100, with significant savings of over 500 km³ in several basins within MENA and India. Of the total water savings potential, 4,023 km³ (or 68%) of the saved water comes from nonrenewable groundwater sources. Conversely, under low trade scenarios, a global and regional increase in irrigation water withdrawals is required to meet demands in many water scarce regions. Overall, an increase in global irrigation demands of 6,397 km³ results from the enhanced necessity to produce agricultural goods locally, as the domestic preference for production increases. Of the global water withdrawal increase, 4,776 km³, or 75%, come from nonrenewable groundwater pumping. The results highlight the susceptibility of water resources, across regions, to varying degrees of market integration. Expanding the understanding of how trade integration may evolve in the future can assist in the integrated management of water resources around the world to allow for enhanced food security and potential amelioration of water stress.