Exploring climate change impacts on US hurricanes through storylines
The production of actionable climate science relies on effective communication of regional climate information and its associated uncertainties across sectors. Comprehensive assessment of both dynamical and statistical climate models adds substantial value to their outputs, particularly when the evaluation criteria are the product of a two-way dialogue between scientists and end-users. In this work, we provide an example of such efforts using hurricane storylines. In particular, 7-day ensemble atmospheric model simulations are initialized in advance of recent hurricane landfalls, including Irma’s in 2017 and Ian’s in 2022, to explore characteristics of the storm’s hazards. Additional simulations under future warming levels are completed to estimate the impact of global climate change on hurricane hazards, particularly rainfall extremes. This storyline approach can be further explored within the context of traditional climate model simulations that investigate long-term trends in extreme precipitation. The work demonstrates the usefulness of storyline approaches, informed by interactions with water resource managers, to communicate changes in hurricane risk at regional scales.