Contrasting Responses of Atlantic and Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability
This research assesses the influences of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) on global tropical cyclones (TCs) using two large ensembles of idealized global climate model simulations with opposite signs of AMV forcings superimposed (i.e., AMV+ and AMV–). We first detect TCs with a feature-tracking algorithm, and then compare TC activity by basin in the two AMV experiments. We find contrasting responses of Atlantic and Pacific TC frequency to the AMV anomalies. Compared to AMV–, AMV+ significantly increases TC frequency in the North Atlantic, including those making landfalls. The increase is linked to AMV-induced warmer sea surface temperature and weaker vertical wind shear. By contrast, AMV+ decreases TC occurrence over the western North Pacific and South Pacific, which is tied to stronger vertical wind shear. The opposite responses of vertical wind shear to AMV+ are attributed to strengthened Walker Circulation between the Atlantic and Pacific.