Atmospheric rivers (ARs) comprise filaments of intense water vapor transport in the lower troposphere and are essential to the global hydrological cycle. ARs operate within a broader dynamical environment; their linkages to weather and climate extremes, and their variations in a changing climate, motivate and inform the need for improvements in AR forecasting to expand understanding as well as facilitate emergency response and mitigate socio-economic impacts. Quantifying uncertainty in AR measures—which may originate from detection methodology, data products, and model biases—is crucial for assessing confidence in process-level and impact-orientated AR analyses and predictions.

This session focuses on ARs, including their development, driving mechanisms, dynamical and thermodynamic responses to climate change past and future, linkage with multi-scale climate variability, and hydrological impacts. Abstracts which make use of data from the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project to quantify and elucidate the implication of uncertainty are particularly encouraged.