Most Earth System Models are Missing Key Piece of Future Climate Puzzle
Emissions from thawing permafrost represent one of the largest uncertainties in future climate projections, yet they are missing or underrepresented in most of the earth system models (ESMs) used to inform global climate targets and carbon budgets. A team of modeling experts describe the grand challenge of more accurately representing permafrost thaw dynamics in ESMs, including resources needed and the processes—abrupt thaw, snow physics, surface hydrology, and wildfire among them—that should be included.
Only two of the 11 ESMs used to inform the United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 6th Assessment Report include permafrost emissions, and those that do rely on an over-simplified approximation of gradual thaw, missing the dynamic ways that permafrost is changing as the Arctic warms up to four times faster than the rest of Earth. International climate targets, carbon budgets, and other policy outcomes informed by the IPCC may, therefore, be based on incomplete information. Failing to accurately represent permafrost in ESMs threatens to hamper efforts to meet climate goals and to stay below agreed-upon temperature targets.
Most ESMs are missing representation of thawing permafrost, a key piece of the future climate puzzle. An international team of researchers contend that the three-year grant cycles and focus on novel science questions that characterize much major grant-based funding have contributed to system-wide under-resourcing of ESMs and the ability of these modeling teams to train up developers or to complete important model development steps before teams turn over. Targeted funding on the order of multiple millions of dollars per ESM—and highly skilled software developers and programmers—can help speed the model improvement that’s underway to better capture the global implications of permafrost thaw. Read more about this research.