As monsoons Begin, Researchers Warn of Increased Dangers
Because the timing and intensity of the monsoon naturally vary from year to year, researchers have struggled to determine how this powerful seasonal cycle is being impacted by global warming. Now, using climate models from dozens of scientific groups in 16 countries, a team of researchers believes they have an answer: Climate change is bringing shorter and stronger rainy periods, followed by longer dry spells.
The trend is quite unmistakable. The monsoon’s lifecycle has been enhanced, leading to a higher chance of both wet and dry extremes in a single summer season. The implications of these sorts of meteorological combination punches may be profound.
The monsoon’s shifting cycle creates the conditions for dangerous flood-heat wave succession events. We saw this in Japan in 2018. In one week, people who were already reeling from flooding and landslides that were caused by intense monsoon rains were suddenly facing extreme heat, with deadly consequences. More than 1,000 people died as a consequence of the successive extreme weather events that year. The research team used nearly 30 years of data, as well as the latest climate analyses from the international Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, to evaluate the active and break phases of the monsoon. While we cannot predict whether there will be successive extreme weather events in a given season, we feel it is important for people to understand that these sorts of disasters are more likely.