Increase in the Intensity of Post-monsoon Bay of Bengal Tropical Cyclones
The post-monsoon season (October-November) in the Bay of Bengal has spawned some of the deadliest storms in recorded history. The Bay of Bengal is a marginal tropical cyclone basin that produces only three to four cyclones annually, on average. However, its semi-enclosed nature coupled with a shallow bathymetry and the high population density of surrounding nations cause tropical cyclones in this basin to have devastating consequences when they make landfall. A team of scientists led by Department of Energy researchers at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, used cyclone track data to identify changes in post-monsoon Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone activity during the 30-year post-satellite period 1981-2010. The researchers found that an increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones over the study period and a robust increase in the rate at which cyclones intensify. While an increase in sea surface temperatures and upper-ocean heat content make the ocean more favorable for cyclone development, enhanced instability in the lower-level atmosphere promotes the growth of tropical cyclones. Over the period, all the oceanic and atmospheric changes displayed positive linear trends, suggesting that future post-monsoon Bay of Bengal cyclones may continue to increase in intensity. These results have important implications for understanding and modeling how tropical cyclones respond to climate change in the future.