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Publication Date
1 August 2024

Urbanization exacerbates continental- to regional-scale warming

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Urbanization is usually ignored when estimating past changes in large-scale climate and for future climate projections since cities historically covered a small fraction of the Earth’s surface. Here, by combining global land surface temperature observations with historical estimates of urban area, we demonstrate that the urban contribution to continental- to regional-scale warming has become non-negligible, especially for rapidly urbanizing regions and countries in Asia. Consequently, expected urban expansion over the next century suggests further increased urban influence on large-scale surface climate in the future (approximately 0.16 K for North America and Europe for high-emission scenario in 2100). Based on these results, also seen for air temperature, we argue that, in line with other forms of land use/land cover change, urbanization should be explicitly included in climate change assessments. This requires incorporation of dynamic urban extent and biophysics in current-generation Earth system models to quantify potential urban feedback on the climate system across scales. 

Chakraborty, TC, and Yun Qian. 2024. “Urbanization Exacerbates Continental- To Regional-Scale Warming”. One Earth 7 (8). Elsevier BV: 1387-1401. doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2024.05.005.
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