Using the Community Earth System Model to investigate the carbon and climate responses to mitigation and climate intervention scenarios.
Given the continued lack of progress on global commitments to reduce fossil fuel emissions, achieving a climate future of less than 1.5C warming may not be possible without well-assessed climate actions that include mitigation, adaptation, and restoration, as well as more controversial approaches, such as carbon dioxide removal and solar radiation modification. As a major component of our National Science Foundation (NSF) Growing Convergence Research (GCR) award we have developed an Earth System modeling framework with the Community Earth System Model (CESM 2.1.5) model that represents possible real world Climate Interventions actions through implementations of CDR and SRM based on realistic applications of atmospheric chemical treatments, large scale terrestrial and marine ecosystems, agriculture, and industrial processes.
CESM provides a unique opportunity to represent ecosystems, agriculture and urban systems to allow for impact assessment of both climate change and efforts to address those possible changes. This new framework utilizes CESM in a new configuration with emission driven scenarios, and active fire and biogenic aerosols that interact with a fully coupled carbon cycle. This is very different from the way CESM has been used in the CMIP6 and other Climate Intervention simulations, where CO2, other greenhouse gases, and aerosols are predetermined and prescribed for a simulation in line with the metrics of a particular future scenario. The new framework allows for a full treatment of the carbon cycle and climate responses to a range of future emission and land use scenarios exploring a wide range of possible mitigation and climate intervention activities.