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Testing the conditional skill of a hydro-economics model system for food, land, and water sustainability research

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Abstract

Coupled hydro-economic models are useful for understanding the multi-sector dynamics that control socio-ecological system response to changes in economic policies and environmental conditions.  The WBM-SIMPLE-G coupled modeling framework aspires to represent feedback between sectoral water uses and the agricultural economy through endogenizing the cost and accessibility of irrigation water, with a particular focus on the effects of increasing aquifer drawdown on abstraction costs and irrigation reliability in a fully spatially resolved manner.  Here we interrogate the skill of the WBM-SIMPLE-G model system to represent historical dynamics in both aquifer drawdown and irrigation water use.  Following initial coupling efforts, we identified the need to substitute input streams forming the inter-model linkages for historical data products to better isolate process representation in each model individually.  This on-going work necessitates a close inspection of a regional focus area, selected here as the High Plains Aquifer in the Midwest and Great Plains of the USA.  We anticipate that compounding errors in the coupled models are irreducible. However, with proper characterization of the uncertainties introduced through coupling the models, WBM-SIMPLE-G will be useful to understand how adaptations to agricultural and water systems can build resilience through 21st century global change.

Category
Energy, Water, and Land System Transition
Methods in Model Integration, Hierarchical Modeling, Model Complexity
Impacts, Tipping Points and Systems Responses and Resilience
Funding Program Area(s)