Seasonal Forecasting of Spatial, Coherent Floods in the Northeast United States using Climate Information for Flood Risk Assessment
We present a new framework for detecting and forecasting large spatial extent floods in the Northeastern United States, Hydrological Unit Code 2 (HUC2) region. Historical streamflow data was collected for the years 1955 – 2017 for 55 stations. Floods are classified as days when station’s streamflow exceeds the 99th percentile of flowrates that were measured during this period. Large spatial extent floods, designated as Spatial Extreme Flood Events (SEFEs), are defined as days with simultaneous floods in more than 3 stations during the same 1955 – 2017 period. The applied methodology resulted in 1,935 SEFEs with a dominant season of January – May (JFMAM). Using field correlation analysis, we found that El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and northeastern Caribbean sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) have a statistically significant correlation up to 1 season ahead with SEFEs. Hence, these pre-season climate predictors were used to forecast the number of SEFEs in JFMAM. Preliminary modeling using a nonparametric k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) approach reveals promising results with good predictive abilities in a real-time forecasting mode. These forecasts can then be used for quantifying the spatial extent and risks to prepare for water management and emergency services ahead of the season.