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Results from an Updated Climate Variability Diagnostics Package for Large Ensembles Applied to a new Multi-Model Large Ensemble Archive

Presentation Date
Friday, December 13, 2024 at 8:30am - Friday, December 13, 2024 at 12:20pm
Location
Convention Center - Hall B-C (Poster Hall)
Authors

Author

Abstract

Observations can be considered as one realization of the climate system that we live in. To conduct meaningful evaluation of climate models one must use multiple ensemble members from a single model and assess where the observations sit within the ensemble spread. Single model initial-condition large ensembles (LEs) are valuable tools for such an evaluation. Here, we present the new multi-model large ensemble archive (MMLEAv2) which has been extended to include 16 models and 11 key climate variables. Data in this archive have been remapped to a common 2.5 x 2.5 degree grid to promote inter-model comparison. We also introduce the newly updated Climate Variability Diagnostics Package version 6 (CVDPv6), which is designed specifically for use with LEs. By applying this package to the MMLEAv2 we highlight its value in model evaluation and inter-ensemble comparisons. We demonstrate that for some metrics depending on which ensemble member is chosen, a model might evaluate poorly or favorably due to a large ensemble spread, and emphasize that for highly variable metrics, LEs allow for more meaningful evaluation than individual ensemble members, the ensemble mean, or a multi-model mean. Post-processed output from the CVDPv6 across CMIP archives is also made available to expedite broader community analysis and understanding of model capabilities across recent model generations.

Category
Global Environmental Change
Funding Program Area(s)