It is well known that the intensity of heat waves in East Asia is mainly affected by the Pacific-Japan (P-J) pattern and circum-global teleconnection (CGT). However, recent studies suggest that strong warming in the Arctic-Siberian Plain (ASP) amplifies Rossby waves, intensifying heat waves in East Asia (ASP teleconnection). Compared to P-J and CGT patterns, the performance of simulations associated with the ASP teleconnections has not been evaluated. This study evaluates the performance of ASP teleconnection patterns in terms of interannual and intraseasonal variability using Common Basis Function (CBF) analysis based on the CMIP6 historical dataset. Results reveal that while most models accurately reproduce intra-seasonal variability, they struggle to capture interannual variability effectively. In addition, while the Rossby wave propagations through the ASP warming are well simulated in intra-seasonal variability, the amplification of thermal high-pressure systems in the ASP is not sufficiently reproduced in interannual time scale. Further analysis reveals that the low performance of the models are originated from not to accurately simulate the amplification of thermal high-pressure systems driven by positive water vapor feedback in the ASP region. Therefore, to improve the future projection performance of heat waves in East Asia, it is important for models to accurately simulate land-atmosphere interactions, including water vapor feedback in the ASP region.

This work was funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant(RS-2024-00403386).