A Multi-Scale Framework for Urban Heat Island Analysis: Integrating Building Energy Modeling, Spatial Analytics, and Machine Learning in Maricopa County, Arizona
This study presents a comprehensive framework for analyzing urban heat island (UHI) effects using building energy modeling and spatial analysis techniques. The research focuses on Maricopa County, Arizona, utilizing the Automatic Building Energy Modeling (AutoBEM) software to simulate energy consumption for 1.35 million buildings. The methodology integrates building-level energy simulations, spatial analysis of heat emissions, and machine learning clustering to identify emission hotspots and patterns.
Key findings reveal significant variations in heat emissions across building types and urban zones. Residential buildings, comprising 90% of the simulated stock, contribute the highest total emissions at 48.7 million GJ annually. However, hospitals and large hotels exhibit the highest average emissions per building, with values of 0.074 GJ/sqft and 0.069 GJ/sqft respectively. The study employed K-means clustering to divide the county into ten emission zones, identifying hotspots of UHI effect. The study employs K-means clustering to divide the county into ten emission zones, providing insights into the spatial distribution of UHI contributors.
Additionally, the research analyzes emissions at the zip code level, offering a context-based perspective that aligns with existing urban boundaries. Zip code-level analysis provided further insights, with zip code 85321 showing the highest median emission density of 0.07439 GJ/sqft. The top ten zip codes for total emissions ranged from 2.6 to 4.0 million GJ annually, highlighting areas for targeted interventions.
The developed framework, including a web-based visualization interface, serves as a valuable tool for urban planners and policymakers to address UHI effects. It offers potential applications in targeted interventions, such as building retrofits and zoning policies, to mitigate urban heat. The study concludes by suggesting future research directions, including the integration of real-time sensor data and comparative analyses in diverse urban settings to enhance the framework's applicability and effectiveness in combating urban heat islands.