Multi-model estimates of the timing of peak global warming relative to zero emissions under an idealized CO2 emissions ramp-down experiment
We conducted a set of idealized CO2 emissions-driven experiments, flat10MIP, using multiple coupled carbon-climate Earth system models (ESMs) and simple climate models (SCMs), to quantify climate responses to positive CO2 emissions of 10 PgC/yr followed by either abrupt cessation of emissions or a gradual rampdown through zero emissions to -10 PgC/yr. Here we analyze a new coupled carbon-climate metric: the timing of peak CO2-driven warming relative to the point of reaching zero emissions under a linear rampdown of emissions. We show multi-model estimates of this metric, its relationship to the zero emissions commitment (ZEC) and other coupled carbon-climate metrics, and explore differences between ESMs and SCMs in the behavior that governs this timing. These results have important implications for both remaining emissions under specified warming targets and the Earth system effectiveness of proposed carbon removal approaches.