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A more La Niña-like response to radiative forcing after flux adjustment in CESM2

Presentation Date
Tuesday, December 10, 2024 at 1:40pm - Tuesday, December 10, 2024 at 5:30pm
Location
Convention Center - Hall B-C (Poster Hall)
Authors

Author

Abstract

In response to greenhouse gas forcing, most coupled global climate models project a SST trend towards an "El Niño-like" state in the tropical Pacific, characterized by a reduced zonal SST gradient and weakened Walker circulation. However, observations over the past five decades reveal a trend towards a more "La Niña-like" state, with a strengthening zonal SST gradient. Recent research suggests the identified trend differences are unlikely to be solely explained by internal variability and may partially result from systematic model biases. In this study, we use the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) to investigate the possible role of mean state biases in regulating its forced responses to radiative forcing in the tropical Pacific. Our results show that applying flux adjustments to reduce the mean-state bias in CESM2 over tropical regions leads to a more "La Niña-like" trend pattern, with a strengthening of the tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient and a relatively enhanced Walker circulation, as hypothesized to occur if the ocean thermostat mechanism is stronger than the atmospheric mechanisms which by themselves would weaken the Walker circulation. Additionally, we find that the strengthening of the tropical Pacific zonal gradient is transient in historical simulations and shifts towards weakening in a high-emissions future scenario. These findings highlight the potential of flux adjustments as a method for developing alternative projections that capture a broader range of possible future tropical Pacific warming scenarios, aiding in the understanding of regional climate risk in the near term. We will also elucidate the possible mechanisms by which flux adjustments modify forced responses of the CESM2 to be more "La Niña-like" based on the ocean mixed layer temperature budget analysis.

Category
Ocean Sciences
Funding Program Area(s)
Additional Resources:
NERSC (National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center)