We explore the potential for changing sea ice thickness (SIT) in the Arctic to impact fossil resource extraction-driven shipping activities over the Northern Sea Route (NSR). Using the case study of oil extracted from Russian Arctic offshore reserves and shipped to East Asian markets, we compare projected costs of shipping over the NSR versus the longer Suez Canal Route (SCR). Our analysis incorporates impacts of climate change on the SIT-dependent cost of shipping on the NSR. We also leverage an integrated human-Earth system model to incorporate impacts of both climate change and global climate change mitigation efforts on the SIT-dependent cost of producing Russian Arctic offshore oil, global demand for the oil, and emissions costs associated with shipping the oil in a low carbon future. We find that the NSR will become increasingly cost-competitive with the SCR over the century, particularly in a higher warming scenario. Lower fuel costs and shorter shipping times will result in increased shipping traffic and associated CO₂ emissions along the NSR, with the spatial distribution of traffic and emissions depending on the magnitude of future warming. In a low carbon transition scenario, high emissions costs on the longer SCR may offset the high fuel and ice breaker escort costs associated with thicker sea ice on the NSR. These insights could have implications for climate change mitigation policy, global trade dynamics, and NSR port development strategies.