Mapping Philadelphia’s Floodscape: A 35-Year Analysis of Property-Level Flood Hazards through Integrated Coastal Flood Modeling
Low-lying coastal regions face significant flood risks from a combination of factors including storm surges and high tides (coastal), river flooding (fluvial), and intense local rainfall (pluvial) from extreme weather events. These risks are further amplified by urbanization, climate change, rising sea levels, and aging infrastructure. The complex interplay of these factors results in highly variable flood dynamics, leading to impacts that can vary significantly across communities and properties over short distances and timescales. This variability presents challenges in predicting and managing coastal urban flood hazards. Supported by the Department of Energy’s Integrated Coastal Modeling Project (ICoM), this research utilizes an integrated, high-resolution DHSVM-FVCOM-RIFT flood modeling framework in Philadelphia, PA. The city exemplifies the complex flood risks prevalent in many coastal cities due to its proximity to the Atlantic Coast and tidal rivers. This research marks the first comprehensive analysis of historical flood events (1985-2019) in Philadelphia, extending beyond traditional analyses that focus on design extreme events. Our approach analyzes a broad spectrum of events over 35 years to identify the primary drivers of past floods, and their differential impacts on the city’s flood hazard landscape at the property level. For instance, we identified eight primary drivers of major flood events, e.g., fluvial-only, pluvial-only, surge-only, and various compound drivers (involving combinations like pluvial-fluvial and pluvial-fluvial-coastal). Notably, our analysis indicates that 44% of Philadelphia’s flood events resulted from these compound drivers, resulting in different spatial and temporal flood patterns. These insights are crucial for developing targeted, effective flood mitigation strategies, tailored to the unique challenges and risks posed by different types of flooding and their distinct drivers. This research also underscores the importance of modeling complex interactions among multiple flood drivers in coastal cities facing multifaceted flood risks.