Most Earth system models (ESMs) predict an “El Niño-like” sea surface temperature (SST) trend in the equatorial Pacific, characterized by a weakening zonal SST gradient. However, recent observations indicate a “La Niña-like” pattern, with a strengthening zonal SST gradient. This discrepancy, highlighted in multiple studies, suggests that ESMs may be incorrectly simulating the equatorial Pacific’s response to greenhouse gas forcing. Given that the state of the equatorial Pacific significantly influences global tropical cyclone (TC) activity, this uncertainty affects future TC activity projections, making even the direction of change uncertain in some regions. In this study, we use a hierarchical modeling approach to investigate TC projection uncertainty associated with future tropical Pacific warming patterns. First, we applied the flux adjustment method (Vecchi et al. 2013) to reduce the mean state bias in CESM2 and developed an alternative tropical Pacific warming scenario in which recent observed trends continue into the mid-21st century. We then downscaled synthetic TCs from the CESM2 simulations using two TC downscaling models (Lee et al. 2018; Lin et al. 2023). Our results demonstrate that SST trend patterns profoundly impact near-term TC activity, with projections indicating an increase in North Atlantic TCs in the more “La Niña-like” warming pattern.