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Identifying and Correcting Regional Climate Bias in Reanalysis Forcing Products for Site-level WrPMIP Simulations

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Abstract

Arctic and subarctic regions are warming faster than the global average leading to poorly understood changes in biophysical, biogeochemical, and ecohydrological responses in high-latitude ecosystems. To better understand these ecosystem changes, especially permafrost thaw and subsequent feedbacks to the earth system, we modeled and benchmark panarctic experimental permafrost warming sites. As a first step, The Warming Permafrost Model Intercomparison Project (WrPMIP) created bias-corrected climate forcing for site-level simulations around 14 research stations across the panarctic where experimental warming occurred. Considering that climate forcing is an important determining factor in model performance, it is critical to identify and correct regional climate biases in reanalysis products so that model intercomparisons focus on sources of structural and parametric uncertainty. Here we discuss problems encountered while creating site-level bias-corrected climate forcing products for community use. The extent of bias found across reanalysis products in panarctic regions and data availability/quality were major impediments to climate corrections, with half of the 14 research stations missing at least one observational variable of interest. All sites also have data quality issues with missing data most prevalent over winter. However, despite these issues, bias-correction improved agreement between the CRUJRAv2.3 reanalysis product and all observational responses at all sites. Regional reanalysis products used to force state-of-the-art carbon cycle models typically remained most biased for stochastic variables like rainfall and windspeed. Further work to adjust the occurrence of stochastic events, and not just the amplitude of diurnal/seasonal response, will be important for improved representation of site climate. Though it is well known that permafrost regions are remote and difficult to study, improving model skill in these areas will require improved meteorological coverage to increase confidence in front-end data driving models of the panarctic.

Category
High Latitude
Metrics, Benchmarks and Credibility of model output and data for science and end users
Model Uncertainties, Model Biases, and Fit-for-Purpose
Funding Program Area(s)
Additional Resources:
NERSC (National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center)