Human Influence on the Earliest-forming Category 5 Hurricane Beryl
Hurricane Beryl was the first Atlantic hurricane in 2024 and caused severe damages across the Caribbean, the Yucatán Peninsula, and the US. The storm, fueled by abnormally warm ocean water, formed on June 28 and intensified to Category 5 on July 2, making it the earliest-forming Category 5 hurricane on record in any season. A rapid attribution study by Climameter suggested that natural climate variability, especially the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, likely played important roles in driving Hurricane Beryl. Anthropogenic climate change was also suggested to have further strengthened the strong winds and extreme precipitation of the event. The rapid attribution study, however, was based on separating historical observations into past and present periods, and thus it fails to disentangle the effects of climate variability and anthropogenic climate change on Hurricane Beryl. It therefore remains unclear as to what extent the hurricane is influenced by these climate drivers. Here we aim to address this uncertainty by answering the following questions: To what extent did anthropogenic climate change contribute to the intensity of Hurricane Beryl? With future climate change, how will the storm’s characteristics (such as maximum sustained winds and rain rate) differ? Using a storyline approach, we will perform three ensembles of high-resolution simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The three ensembles are forced with historical conditions, historical conditions but with anthropogenic warming excluded, and historical conditions but with future anthropogenic warming added, respectively. Comparing model outputs from the two pseudo-global warming simulations with the hindcast simulations will allow us to quantify the effects of anthropogenic warming on Hurricane Beryl. The study will shed light on understanding and mitigating hurricane hazards in a changing climate.