How will climate change and a global transition to non-fossil fuel energy affect energy security across Arctic Alaska?
Fossil fuel production plays a major role in Alaska’s economy, with taxes paid by oil producers contributing significantly to revenue at the state and local levels. This dependence on the fossil fuel industry leaves the state and its communities vulnerable to changes in oil and gas prices and production, which in turn depend on global and regional demand and supply. In this paper we focus on energy security, which is a major concern in Arctic Alaskan communities where fuel prices are particularly high compared to the rest of the state, due to remoteness and transportation challenges. State- and borough- funded energy assistance programs, which offset these high prices, could be at risk if future petroleum tax revenue declines. This could be the case as many nations including the U.S. are aiming to achieve more sustainable, low-carbon economies by transitioning from fossil-based energy to renewable energy sources. At the same time, Arctic Alaskan communities are facing significant climate change impacts on livelihoods and infrastructure; climate change could also impact heating and cooling demand as temperature patterns change. Here, we leverage a global MultiSector Dynamics model with U.S. state-level details to explore implications of both climate change and global energy transitions for Arctic Alaskan energy security. Focusing on the North Slope and Northwest Arctic Boroughs as case studies, we analyze the cascading effects of potential changes in state and local petroleum revenue on residential energy security under multiple model scenarios; we also assess future residential energy demands considering climate change impacts on heating and cooling needs. We then discuss and compare potential implications for the two boroughs. We find that a global energy transition could have major implications for future Alaskan petroleum revenue and that cascading impacts on Arctic Alaskan communities could be heterogeneous given differences in existing energy infrastructure and socioeconomic context.