The Global Impacts of CO2 Plant-Physiological Feedbacks on Wildfire Activity
Recent literature has demonstrated that increased CO2 emissions and associated global warming are causing higher likelihood for wildfire development. Wildfires pose numerous threats to human health and well-being by destroying ecosystems, burning infrastructure, and causing higher levels of respiratory and cardiovascular illnesses attributed to the inhalation of wildfire smoke. In addition to the radiative warming effect of rising CO2, higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations may also modify fire weather dynamics through plant-physiological forcing. As CO2 increases, there are reductions in stomatal conductance, which reduces water lost through transpiration. This reduces the water content in the near-surface atmosphere but may lead to retention of water in the soil and in the plants themselves. Higher CO2 can also lead to increased photosynthesis and plant growth, which could potentially increase fire fuel sources. To analyze the impact these competing effects may have on vegetation fire dynamics, we make use of idealized CMIP6 simulations (1%/year CO2 increase) that isolate radiative, plant-physiological, and combined impacts of rising CO2. In our assessment, we investigate the plant-physiological contribution to changes as indicated by several fire and fire weather indices, including output directly from the models and derived using the Canadian Fire Weather Index System (CFWIS). Preliminary findings show small and regionally dependent contributions of plant-physiological forcing to increases in burned area and CO2 emitted from wildfires; as well as changes to temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation leading to adjustments in the components of the CFWIS.