Global CH4 Emissions from Small Wetlands during 2002-2022
Wetlands are important contributors to rising atmospheric CH4 concentrations which can result in positive climate feedback. However, estimates of global wetland CH4 emissions remain highly uncertain partly due to large uncertainties in wetland inundation area. The current global carbon project-CH4 budget is built upon coarse spatial resolution (e.g., 0.25 degree) wetland area data; therefore, the impact of small wetlands on the magnitude and trend of global CH4 emissions remains unclear. Here we quantified global CH4 emissions from different sizes of small wetlands as well as their contributions to the trends in CH4 emission changes during 2002-2022 regionally and globally. Specifically, we leveraged high-resolution (~30 m) satellite wetland maps, worldwide eddy covariance and chamber observations of CH4 fluxes, and a causality-guided machine learning model for global wetland CH4 emission estimates. We estimate that small wetlands (<1 km2 in size) account for ~28% of the global total wetland area. Furthermore, wetlands smaller than 0.09 km2 and 0.01 km2 constitute an extensive portion of the total area of wetlands that are less than 1 km², indicating that 300 m and 100 m resolution remote sensing images are insufficient and higher resolution satellites (e.g., 30m resolution) are needed to explicitly delineate such fine-scale wetland extent. During the past two decades, substantial CH4 was emitted from these small wetlands. More importantly, even when accounting for the uncertainty in the interannual changes of wetland area, increases in CH4 emissions from small wetlands were robustly identified due to robust increases in emission intensity. Our results highlight the important but under-appreciated role of small wetlands in the global CH4 budget and potentially in the recent increase in atmospheric CH4 concentrations.