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Future Heat Exposure and Precipitation Projections over the Great Lakes Region

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Abstract

This study employs high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations through the Pseudo-Global Warming (PGW) approach to understand future climate dynamics over the Great Lakes Region (GLR), focusing on precipitation shifts and extreme heat exposure by the century's end. Using ERA-5 reanalysis data augmented with perturbations from Earth system models, we separated future precipitation events into isolated deep convection (IDC) and mesoscale convective systems (MCS). Findings indicate an increase in IDC and MCS, linked to spatially variable changes in thermodynamic indices involving the lifting condensation level (LCL) and level of free convection (LFC). Moisture changes had a conducive effect on convection. Concurrently, our future projections revealed disproportionate rises in heat stress within the GLR, especially at the population scale when combined with high-resolution population projections. Our integrated approach provides a dual perspective on climate impact, highlighting not only amplified convective precipitation but also enhanced heat risks. These insights are critical for developing informed regional adaptation strategies to mitigate the repercussions of climate change.

Category
Coastal
Extremes Events
Funding Program Area(s)
Additional Resources:
NERSC (National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center)