Understanding the evolution of the international natural gas trade and associated regional teleconnections is critical for analyzing long-term energy system transitions. Natural gas can be traded through liquefied natural gas (LNG)—gas that is first cooled to liquid form, then shipped and converted back into gas at the destination—or through pipelines. However, the future impact of natural gas trade, in particular LNG, in the context of an evolving global energy system is complex and not well studied.

Here, we develop a new modeling capability to represent traded LNG and traded pipeline gas as two distinct pathways in the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), a long term, detailed multi-sectoral model representing the interactions between multiple energy supply and demand technologies. With this, we explore scenarios of future demand, trade, and the corresponding regional investment level in LNG and pipeline trade infrastructure. Each region’s natural gas demand is met by either domestically produced or imported LNG or imported pipeline gas. While LNG is traded in a single global market, pipeline gas is traded in six regional blocs—North America, Latin America, Europe, Russia+, Africa-Middle East, and Asia-Pacific.

We find LNG to make up a dominant share of gas trade, as it can be flexibly shipped across regions. New global investments in LNG and pipeline export infrastructure respectively range from 230-840 and 70-620 million tons per annum (MTPA) by 2050 across scenarios; the lower end of this range is achieved through transitioning to low-carbon energy systems along with limited trade. Our results also highlight diverging implications for regions based on their gas trade profiles. For example, Russia, which produces gas largely for pipeline exports may experience greater production losses due to liquefaction and shipping improvements and geopolitical shifts than regions oriented more towards domestic and LNG markets, like USA and Middle East.