Exploring Energy-Water-Land System Dynamics Under Climate and Socioeconomic Uncertainties with GCAM-USA
In this study we examine how a wide yet plausible range of socioeconomic and climate futures impacts energy-water-land (EWL) system dynamics in the continental United States (CONUS) over the 21st century. We use the Global Change Analysis Model - USA (GCAM-USA) to simulate eight scenarios consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) - Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenario framework. GCAM-USA is a multisector human-Earth systems model with state-level detail for the United States embedded within a global framework. We combine two different socioeconomic pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) with four high-resolution climate projections for the US, representing two climate uncertainties (hotter and cooler climates) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. These climate projections are derived using a Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) approach from models with greater or lesser climate sensitivity (i.e., sensitivity on ensemble mean of projected temperature) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The GCAM-USA modeling includes the dynamic impacts of SSP-RCP scenarios on energy demands, water availability, and agricultural yields. We find that socioeconomics is the dominant driver of EWL system dynamics compared to climate. However, the interaction between socioeconomic and climate drivers can either amplify or dampen their effects on EWL systems. For example, transitioning to lower emission and higher population scenarios together lead to an increase of 20 km3 in agricultural water demands in California by 2100 in our results. In contrast, considering these two drivers independently results in an increase of only 3 km3 in agricultural water demand. Our results highlight a diverse range of potential challenges and opportunities for the US that could emerge under alternative climate and socioeconomic futures, offering insight into the trade-offs between energy, water, and land systems in the CONUS.