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Exploring Energy-Water-Land System Dynamics Under Climate and Socioeconomic Uncertainties with GCAM-USA

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Abstract

In this study we examine how a wide yet plausible range of socioeconomic, policy, and climate futures impacts energy-water-land system dynamics in the continental United States (CONUS) over the 21st century. We use the Global Change Analysis Model - USA (GCAM-USA) to simulate 8 different scenarios consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways - Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP-RCP) scenario framework. We combine two different socioeconomic pathways with four high-resolution climate projections for the US: two instantiations (e.g., hotter and cooler climate) each for RCP8.5 and RCP4.5. These climate projections (an IM3/HyperFACETS collaboration) are the result of applying a Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) approach derived from models with greater or lesser climate sensitivity (i.e., sensitivity on ensemble mean of projected temperature) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The GCAM-USA modeling includes the dynamic impacts of these SSP-RCP combinations on energy demands, water availability, and agricultural yields. Our results will highlight a diverse range of potential challenges and opportunities for the US that could emerge under these alternative climate and socioeconomic futures. This research was performed as part of the IM3 project, funded by the EESM MultiSector Dynamics program area.

Category
Energy, Water, and Land System Transition
Strengthening EESM Integrated Modeling Framework – Towards a Digital Earth
Local/Regional Testbeds – an Integrative Framework for Multidisciplinary Model Development and Applications
Funding Program Area(s)
Additional Resources:
NERSC (National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center)