An Environmentally Forced Post-Tropical Cyclone Hazard Model
Post-tropical cyclones (PTCs), a subset of extratropical cyclones (ETCs) originating from tropical cyclones (TCs), can be extremely intense, and their hazards set them apart from typical ETCs. However, the risks of PTCs and how they may change in a warming world are still poorly quantified. The Columbia HAZard model (CHAZ) is a statistical-dynamical downscaling model developed to estimate the long-term hazard of TCs. In this study, an environmentally forced PTC hazard model is developed as a new module of CHAZ, which can also be used in other TC downscaling models. Three components are identified to represent the PTCs: timing of extratropical transition (ET), track, and intensity. Here, tracks are provided by the CHAZ model and the timing of ET is defined using a logistic regression with an elastic net following an existing work. The PTC intensity model is new as the original intensity component of the CHAZ model, which is designed for TCs, overestimates PTC intensities; It is trained using the PTC track and intensity from IBTrACS and environmental conditions from ERA5 reanalysis datasets. The work presents the development of this PTC model for the North Atlantic. We will show the model's performance against observations and explore its application to PTC risk under the influence of anthropogenic climate change.