Environmental Controls on Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in high-resolution Earth System Models
Tropical cyclone rapid intensification (TCRI) is defined as a significant increase in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity over a short period of time and is often associated with the most destructive major TCs. TCRI involves internal dynamical processes and multiscale oceanic and atmospheric environmental conditions, and understanding these processes is important for simulating and projecting TC activity and guiding mitigations of TC-induced damages. Here we examine the TCRI occurrences and rates in two high-resolution “TC-permitting” Earth System Models -- Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and Community Earth System Model (CESM). We investigate the connections of TCRI to the large-scale environmental controls, particularly the tropical ocean thermal states and the influence of ENSO. The relationship between TCRI and storm maximum intensity in these two climate models are also examined. We found that the two models have distinct TC RI features and the differences are closely connected to the mean state tropical SST and vertical wind shear.