Emergent constraints of temperature sensitivity on projected wetland methane emissions
The future methane (CH4) emissions from natural wetlands are predicted to amplify due to global warming, thereby accelerating climate change. However, the magnitude of this predicted increase remains highly uncertain. Here we conducted a first-ever ensemble simulation of state-of-the-art terrestrial biosphere models to estimate wetland CH4 emissions during the 21st century. We identified an emergent relationship between CH4 temperature sensitivity and projected wetland CH4 emissions. Our estimates indicate that warming will release an average of 22±8 Tg CH4 yr-1 K-1 for every 1-K increase in global land temperature. Combined with contemporary observations from eddy covariance measurements, our analysis suggests that wetland emissions will increase markedly from the 2000s level at 190±59 Tg CH4 yr-1 to 308±102 Tg CH4 yr-1 in 2090s under the severe climate scenario RCP8.5. The constrained projection under RCP8.5 suggests a 2% probability in 2030s that the predicted increase in wetland CH4 could completely offset the amount Global Methane Pledge committed to reduce, with this chance increasing to over 50% in 2050s. Our findings help reduce the uncertainty in predicting wetland methane emissions and imply greater certainty regarding the impact of natural feedback on future methane mitigating actions.