The Effect of African Easterly Wave Suppression by Periodicity on Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
African easterly waves (AEWs) are strongly linked to North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) on the synoptic timescale, serving as seedling disturbances for TC genesis. However, recent studies have shown that basin-wide Atlantic TC frequency does not necessarily decrease when AEWs are suppressed. This study focuses specifically on the effects of AEW suppression by periodicity on TC activity. We conducted 10-member ensembles of season-long simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 27 km resolution. In the control, AEWs were prescribed through the lateral boundary conditions as observed for the year 2020. Additionally, we performed experiments in which two different AEW periodicities — characterized by 2-6 day and 6-10 day periodicity — were suppressed. Preliminary results indicate that suppressing eitherEW periodicity results in a slightly earlier but reduced peak in seasonal TC frequency. The ensemble mean Atlantic TC number has statistically insignificant and weak decreases of 6% and 7% when the 2-6 day and 6-10 day AEWs are suppressed, respectively. Additionally, there are notable differences in the genesis location and TC track density depending on which AEW periodicity is suppressed. Based on minimum sea level pressure, we found that the mean TC intensity across all ensembles and TCs is strongest when the 2-6 day AEWs are suppressed. Suppressing the 2-6 day AEWs also results in slower moving TCs, with about a 15% slower translation speed than the control. With respect to TC lifetime, suppressing either AEW periodicity led to longer but statistically insignificant mean lifetimes than the control across all ensembles and TCs. By examining composites prior to TC genesis, we found that the convection within the disturbance that triggers tropical cyclogenesis is strongest when the 2-6 day AEWs are suppressed, and this may lead to higher rainfall. Similarly, the rotation of the disturbance is greatest when the 2-6 day AEWs are suppressed, with greater 850 hPa relative vorticity. These results provide evidence that other rotating convective disturbances capable of developing into TCs form in the absence of AEWs.