Drivers and Impacts of Variability in Ocean Heat Transport Towards the Arctic in the CMIP6 Ensemble
Ocean heat transport (OHT) is a key component of the Arctic energy budget, and an important driver of recent accelerated Arctic warming. The drivers of variability in OHT towards the Arctic are diverse, complex, and poorly understood. The goal of this study is to identify the most important drivers of this variability, and the timescales on which they act. To that end, we perform multi-variate analysis of several diagnostics that were extracted from pre-industrial control simulations from the CMIP6 ensemble. Among these diagnostics are the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) at various latitudes, the strength of the barotropic gyre circulation, and modes of atmospheric variability like the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic Pattern (EAP). Our preliminary results suggest that models wildly disagree on whether OHT variability at 65N is coherent with the AMOC at lower latitudes, or with OHT at lower latitudes. Most models agree on a weak but significant coherence between OHT and the NAO (at subpolar latitudes) and the EAP (at lower latitudes). A wide spread in behaviors among the CMIP6 models makes it difficult to draw robust conclusions about the dominant controls of OHT variability; further analysis is needed to extract a more consistent picture from these models.