Wildfires are favored by hot, dry, windy, rainless conditions – this knowledge about fire weather informs both short-term forecast and long-term prediction of wildfire activity. Yet, wildfires rely on the availability of ignition and fuel, which are underrepresented in fire forecast and prediction practices. By analyzing satellite measurements and atmospheric reanalysis, here we show that near-surface weather only partially captures wildfire occurrence and intensity across the daily to seasonal timescales. Over 70% of global burnable, natural areas exhibit off-phase seasonal cycles in fire weather and either wildfire occurrence or intensity; over 40% show insignificant correlations between monthly fire weather and wildfire metrics. The identified “low fire despite favorable weather” events are attributed to the lack of convection or fuel, especially across low-human-impact and sparse-vegetation regions. Our results highlight the role of atmospheric convection and fuel abundance in wildfire forecast, prompting a revisit of wildfire trajectories under intertwined atmospheric and terrestrial changes.