Coevolution of future water, energy and land systems across the United States in response to national and global socioeconomic, climate, and energy policy drivers.
In this study, we investigate the coevolution of water, energy, and land sectors in response to socioeconomic, policy, and climate drivers across the United States within a global context. Using the Global Change Analysis Model - USA (GCAM-USA), we analyze a range of socio-economic and climate scenarios. These scenarios encompass eight distinct combinations, integrating two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 3 and 5) with two realizations (moderate and severe) of two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). Climate impacts on runoff, agricultural yields, and heating and cooling demands are investigated, while considering different pathways for population and GDP growth. The analysis is conducted at the state and river basin level in the U.S., at a more aggregated regional level for the rest of the world, and focusing on five-year intervals at an annual scale. Additionally, the impacts of heating and cooling degrees on building energy requirements are assessed in 25 sub-annual time segments, including day and night for each month, as well as a superpeak segment. Outputs show complex interactions and diverse impacts of the different climate and human drivers across the energy, water and land sectors. These results can help inform strategies to mitigate risks, enhance resilience, and optimize resource management within each sector.