Climate change will reduce North American inland wetland areas and disrupt their seasonal regimes
Climate change can significantly alter inland wetland extent and functions, but these impacts remain unclear due to the varied influence of hydroclimatic changes on wetland processes. In this study, we project future changes in wetland characteristics across North America using a state-of-the-science Earth system model that incorporates both fluvial and pluvial inundation processes. Our model, relied on process-based inundation dynamics, aligns well with satellite-based surface water observations and suggests different wetland sensitivities to global warming than previous diagnostic-based studies. At the continental scale, annual wetland area is projected to decrease by approximately 10% (6% - 14%) under the high emission scenario by the end of the century, with regional changes varying significantly, up to ±50%. Notably, the evolution of functional wetland habitats may differ from overall wetland area dynamics. As global warming intensifies, temperature is expected to play a more dominant role than precipitation in influencing wetland dynamics under the high emission scenario. These projections underscore the critical need for emission mitigation to preserve wetland ecosystems in the future.