Calibration of the Arctic Coastal Erosion Model
The Arctic, containing one-third of the global coastline, experiences rapid coastal erosion, the episodic and storm-driven nature of which remains unexplained by current permafrost erosion quantification tools. This work presents a calibrated novel multi-physics finite element model—Arctic Coastal Erosion (ACE) model—for simulating Arctic coastal permafrost degradation. Our approach, mechanistically coupling oceanographic predictions with a terrestrial model to capture the thermo-mechanical dynamics of erosion, enables this much needed treatment of transient erosion events. The Arctic Coastal Erosion Model consists of oceanographic and atmospheric boundary conditions that force a coastal terrestrial permafrost environment in Albany (a multi-physics based finite element model). An oceanographic modeling suite (consisting of WAVEWATCH III, Delft3D-FLOW, and Delft3D-WAVE) produced time-dependent surge and run-up boundary conditions for the terrestrial model. In the terrestrial model, two primary components are integrated: (1) a solid mechanics model that computes the three-dimensional stress, strain, and displacement in the permafrost based on a frozen water content dependent plasticity model, and (2) an innovative thermal model that regulates the 3D heat conduction and solid-liquid phase transition within the permafrost. These components are linked through a sequential thermo-mechanical coupling scheme, implemented within the open-source Albany/LCM finite element code. This unique modeling approach allows simulation of any permissible deformation-induced failures (block failure, thermo-denudation, thermo-abrasion) arising from constitutive, not empirical, relationships within the finite element model. To simulate transient permafrost erosion events, elements are dynamically removed from the finite element mesh. Extensive experimental work has underpinned the ACE Model development including field campaigns to measure in situ ocean and erosion processes, strength properties derived from thermally driven geomechanical experiments, as well as extensive physical composition and geochemical analyses. Utilizing this experimental data, calibration of the ACE model at Drew Point Alaska over the 2018 summer period is presented illustrating a physically grounded and dynamically driven treatment of Arctic coastal erosion. In InteRFACE, this calibrated model will underpin the development of a parameterization for integration into E3SM.