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Attribution of 2024 Houston Derecho to Anthropogenic Climate Change and Urbanization

Presentation Date
Tuesday, January 14, 2025 at 3:00pm - Tuesday, January 14, 2025 at 4:30pm
Location
New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center - Hall C
Authors

Author

Abstract

The 2024 Houston derecho was the most devastating wind event to impact the city in nearly 25 years, unleashing destructive winds across a vast area, leading to widespread power outages and causing several fatalities. Typically, Houston and the Gulf Coast are less susceptible to derechos, making this event particularly rare and alarming. Given that the Houston area is heavily influenced by human activities, such as climate warming, elevated aerosol levels, and extensive urban expansion, it is crucial to investigate the extent to which these factors may have contributed to this extraordinary event. In this study, we employed the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, conducting high-resolution simulations at a 1-kilometer grid spacing to simulate the 2024 derecho event during May 16-17. To better understand the potential attribution of human activities, we performed a series of sensitivity simulations under varying conditions: a pre-industrial climate scenario, pristine aerosol concentrations, and the absence of urban land use and vegetation. By comparing these sensitivity simulations with the baseline scenario, we aim to determine the contributions of climate change, aerosols, and urbanization to the derecho, including the location, timing, frequency, and intensity of extreme precipitation, hail, and wind associated with this event, as well as the joint effects of these three anthropogenic factors. This comprehensive analysis will provide insights into how anthropogenic factors may have influenced the severity and dynamics of the 2024 Houston derecho, offering critical information for future urban planning and climate adaptation strategies.

Category
38th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Funding Program Area(s)
Additional Resources:
NERSC (National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center)