The Atlantic is Unusually Warm: Its Rarity and Origin
The North Atlantic has been unusually warm for at least a year. Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies larger than 1.0°C covered the northern basin in a horse-shoe pattern extending from the Labrador Sea to the Iberian Peninsula and African Coast and then sweeping southwestward towards Venezuela and the Caribbean Sea during Summer 2023. The northern basin cooled, and the tropical south Atlantic warmed in subsequent seasons, with the entire tropical Atlantic basin warmer than 1.0°C in Spring 2024, and with parts of the Main Development Region (MDR; of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones) being warmer than 1.5°C. We first look for analogs in the 120+ year SST record to assess rarity, and then reconstruct the multi-seasonal SST anomalies using principal components (PCs) of SST-Trend, Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal variabilities, and Atlantic interannual variability to advance understanding of the origin of this unusual warmth. The PC distribution is also being analyzed to assess the rarity of such basin warmth. The frequency of occurrence of extreme Atlantic warmth in historical simulations and its origin will also be investigated and reported.