Efforts Aim to Enhance Understanding of Earth System Predictability

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced $7.7 million in funding for 11 studies (projects) to improve understanding of Earth system predictability and DOE’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), a state-of-the-science climate model.

The E3SM model is the first comprehensive model of the Earth system to take full advantage of the world-leading supercomputing capabilities at DOE’s national laboratories. The goal of DOE’s model development and analysis efforts within Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling (EESM) program is to assert and maintain an international scientific leadership position in the development of Earth system models and providing transformative insights on Earth systems, at time scales ranging from sub-seasonal to centennial, delivering knowledge foundations and science-based tools for the Nation’s planning of next-generation, resilient energy, environmental, and economic systems and infrastructures.

“By improving key elements of our Earth system model in climate-sensitive regions, we have an opportunity to model environmental systems with greater precision and predictive power than ever before by using DOE’s world-class supercomputers,” says Sharlene Weatherwax, DOE Associate Director of Biological and Environmental Research. “These studies will help provide DOE and the nation with more accurate predictions of climate change and its impacts to our infrastructures, economies, and our most vulnerable population groups.”

Studies are intended to benefit the public through increased understanding and modeling of the Earth system and climate change. They will focus on a range of different topics, from an improved representation of ecological systems and cloud-aerosol interactions to quantifying uncertainties across a range of processes, scales, time horizons, and regional impacts.

Projects were selected for an award in FY 2021 by competitive peer review through a DOE Funding Opportunity Announcement issued in FY 2020 under EESM, sponsored by the Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER), within the Department’s Office of Science.

“We want to thank all the researchers who submitted proposals; we are happy to be able to support such excellent research,” says Renu Joseph, DOE Program Manager for the EESM Regional & Global Model Analysis (RGMA) program area. RGMA projects focus on a range of projects that enhance predictive and process- and system-level understanding of the modes of variability and change within the Earth system by advancing capabilities to design, evaluate, diagnose, and analyze global and regional Earth system models.

“Central to the Earth System Model Development (ESMD) activities is the development of E3SM,” adds Xujing Davis, DOE Program Manager for the EESM ESMD program area. “E3SM integrates scientific advances in Earth system and computational domains to enhance its capability and accuracy in representing Earth system processes, and their changes and impacts across different temporal and spatial scales. I want to acknowledge all the scientists who submitted their high-quality proposals, their interest and contribution.”

Funding totals $7.7 million in Fiscal Year 2021 dollars for 11 projects lasting three years in duration. Following is a list of the newly funded EESM projects:

RGMA Program Area Projects

• Wei Cheng, University of Washington – “ECS in Climate Models: Quantifying the Uncertainties Due to Cloud Feedback Versus Ocean Heat Uptake Using a Modeling Hierarchy”
• Xiaohong Liu, Texas A&M University – “Understanding Cloud Feedback and Climate Sensitivity in E3SMv1 and CMIP6 Models: Roles of Cloud Microphysics and Aerosol-Cloud Interactions”
• Nicole Lovenduski, University of Colorado, Boulder – “Tracking Carbon Dioxide in the Southern Ocean”
• Cristian Proistosescu, University of Illinois – “Bridging Spatio-Temporal Scales to Observationally Constrain the Cloud Feedback Pattern Effect”
• Christina Schaedel, Northern Arizona University – “Coupling Model Intercomparison with Synthesized Experimental Data Across Time and Space to Constrain Carbon Dynamics and Biogeochemical Cycling in Permafrost Ecosystems”
• Chaopeng Shen, Pennsylvania State University – “A Highly Efficient Deep-Learning Based Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Reduction Framework for Ecosystem Dynamics Models”
• Jason Smerdon, Columbia University – “The Role of Vegetation in Past and Future Global Hydroclimatic Change”
• Daniel Vimont, University of Wisconsin, Madison – “Understanding the Role of Aerosol/Cloud Interactions in North Atlantic and Pacific Climate Variability”

ESMD Program Area Projects

• Xianglei Huang, University of Michigan – “Refining the Representations of High-Latitude Surface-Atmosphere Radiative Coupling in the E3SM”
• Jefferson Moore, University of California, Irvine – “Development of the E3SM Marine Biogeochemistry for Studying Biogeochemistry-Climate Feedbacks”
• Guang Zhang, University of California, San Diego – “Toward Improving the Simulation of Tropical Precipitation in E3SM”